In the European steel sector, current market trends for hot-rolled steel highlight a significant price readjustment following a sharp increase observed at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024. This dynamic is largely influenced by a notable slowdown in demand for these products, leading to a general trend of declining prices in major global markets over the past two months. Notably, the North American market has been the most affected, experiencing a decrease of 27% or $300 per ton in prices for hot-rolled steel since the beginning of the year.
In the Western European market, the period from March 15 to March 22, 2024, marked a reduction of 2.8% in prices for hot-rolled steel, reaching values between 660 and 700 EUR per ton, delivered ex-works. Since the beginning of March, prices have fallen by 30 EUR per ton or 4.1%, remaining stable compared to the beginning of the year, although in January, the maximum price was 760 EUR per ton.
Similarly, the Italian market recorded a decrease in prices for the same products by 20 EUR per ton or 2.9% during the mentioned period, stabilizing at 660-670 EUR per ton. Since the beginning of the year, these prices have decreased by 40 EUR per ton or 5.6%, remaining stable compared to the levels at the beginning of the year when the maximum price reached 760 EUR per ton.
In January, prices for hot-rolled steel in the European Union were temporarily supported by a limited supply of local production and the exhaustion of import quotas. This situation, along with increasing demand and limited production capacity, allowed some producers, including ArcelorMittal, to temporarily raise their target prices. However, this trend was not sustainable in the long term, with prices beginning to gradually decrease from February when actual demand did not support the price increase initiatives to 800 EUR per ton.
In February, the weakness in demand continued to put pressure on prices for hot-rolled steel in the EU, with distributors unable to pass on the price increases from January to end consumers, which led them to avoid purchasing new deliveries.
The lack of prospects for improving demand causes consumers to limit themselves to purchasing reduced quantities of hot-rolled steel, also turning towards imported products that are attractive for their competitive prices, despite long delivery times.
In the current context, where no driving force is visible to reinvigorate the demand for hot-rolled steel in Europe, prices are expected to continue to fall, with estimates of sales prices below 650 EUR per ton for April deliveries. Additionally, import suppliers are willing to adjust prices to 580-600 EUR per ton, aiming to reach a threshold of 550-560 EUR per ton.